Australian Growth Properties (AGH.AX) shares have been sparking interest of late as the volume moving average (VMA) has climbed steadily over the past seven bars. In the most recent session, shares touched a high point of 1.08, while dipping down to 1.01. Shares closed with a change of -0.07 from the most recent open.
When watching the day to day movements of the market, investors often have to be careful not to let external factors cloud their judgment. From time to time, there may be certain stocks taking off that look highly tempting to purchase. Getting into a position based on short-term price movements may be a specific strategy for some, but it may be highly costly for others. Even if a stock has been on a big run that the investor might have missed out on, there is no guarantee that the run will continue higher. Although there may be potential in highly publicized stocks, it may be wise for investors to do their own research and then decide if the stock fits with the overall goals.
One of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of the individual investor is unrealistic expectations. Many times, investors will have an incorrect vision of what they expect to get from their investments in terms of actual returns. Creating unrealistic expectations can lead to overextending risk in the future. If an investor loses patience and thinks that they should be seeing bigger returns than they are currently generating, this may cause them to enter into a few ill advised trades in order to try to hit that previously determined number. Setting realistic, attainable goals may help the investor immensely, not just in terms of future returns, but in terms of the psyche as well.
To confirm a market turnaround or trend reversal, the technical analyst must determine whether or not the measurements of price and volume momentum agree with each other. If they do not, it is a sure indicator of weakness in the trend, and thus a trend reversal may be well on the horizon. If we have a look at volume from the standpoint of momentum, we see a recognizable level of buying and selling activity.
Active traders have a wide range of technical indicators at their disposal for when completing technical stock analysis. Currently, the 14-day ATR for Australian Growth Properties (AGH.AX) is spotted at 0.07. First developed by J. Welles Wilder, the ATR may assist traders in determining if there is heightened interest in a trend, or if extreme levels may be signaling a reversal. Simply put, the ATR determines the volatility of a security over a given period of time, or the tendency of the security to move one direction or another.
Checking in on some other technical levels, the 14-day RSI is currently at 44.88, the 7-day stands at 33.45, and the 3-day is sitting at 22.97. The RSI, or Relative Strength Index, is a commonly used technical momentum indicator that compares price movement over time. The RSI was created by J. Welles Wilder who was striving to measure whether or not a stock was overbought or oversold. The RSI may be useful for spotting abnormal price activity and volatility. The RSI oscillates on a scale from 0 to 100. The normal reading of a stock will fall in the range of 30 to 70. A reading over 70 would indicate that the stock is overbought, and possibly overvalued. A reading under 30 may indicate that the stock is oversold, and possibly undervalued.
Another technical indicator that may be a powerful resource for determining trend strength is the Average Directional Index or ADX. The ADX was introduced by J. Welles Wilder in the late 1970’s and it has stood the test of time. The ADX is typically used in conjunction with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) to help spot trend direction as well as trend strength. At the time of writing, the 14-day ADX for Australian Growth Properties (AGH.AX) is noted at 54.68. Many technical analysts believe that an ADX value over 25 would suggest a strong trend. A reading under 20 would indicate no trend, and a reading from 20-25 would suggest that there is no clear trend signal.
The Williams Percent Range or Williams %R is another technical indicator worth taking a look at. Australian Growth Properties (AGH.AX) currently has a 14 day Williams %R of -100.00. The Williams %R fluctuates between 0 and -100 measuring whether a security is overbought or oversold. The Williams %R is similar to the Stochastic Oscillator except it is plotted upside-down. Levels above -20 may indicate the stock may be considered is overbought. If the indicator travels under -80, this may signal that the stock is oversold. Chart analysts may also use the indicator to project possible price reversals and to define trends.
Australian Growth Properties (AGH.AX) currently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -111.90. Active investors may choose to use this technical indicator as a stock evaluation tool. Used as a coincident indicator, the CCI reading above +100 would reflect strong price action which may signal an uptrend. On the flip side, a reading below -100 may signal a downtrend reflecting weak price action. Using the CCI as a leading indicator, technical analysts may use a +100 reading as an overbought signal and a -100 reading as an oversold indicator, suggesting a trend reversal.
Individual investors might be digging a little deeper into the playbook in order to create a winning plan for the remainder of the calendar year. The diligent investor typically has a portfolio that is diversified and ready to encounter any unforeseen market action. Even after creating the well-planned portfolio with expected returns, nobody can be absolutely sure that those returns will be seen. Setting realistic expectations can help the investor from becoming discouraged if the original plan runs into a bit of a snag. Of course every investor would like to enter the stock market and see sizeable profits right off the bat. This may only be wishful thinking for investors who aren’t ready to put in the time and energy to make sure the overall strategy stays on track and the portfolio stays properly managed.